Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.153776 0.182084 0.215313 0.257511 0.310109 0.374089 4.586926e-01
2025-08-24 0.119420 0.153936 0.198937 0.263012 0.353741 0.480507 6.763573e-01
2025-08-31 0.095611 0.132383 0.184839 0.267542 0.399324 0.609875 9.911782e-01
2025-09-07 0.078738 0.116201 0.174191 0.274784 0.454601 0.783868 1.491096e+00
2025-09-14 0.065769 0.102772 0.164472 0.281553 0.515633 1.008038 2.279403e+00
2025-09-21 0.054068 0.088689 0.150236 0.276696 0.556842 1.229781 3.324824e+00
2025-09-28 0.041526 0.070463 0.124282 0.241400 0.521392 1.266380 3.967607e+00
2025-10-05 0.036147 0.063975 0.118765 0.247135 0.586572 1.625991 6.334065e+00
2025-10-12 0.032403 0.059773 0.116797 0.260848 0.684378 2.198645 1.114187e+01
2025-10-19 0.028883 0.055268 0.113099 0.269638 0.778573 2.901377 1.962827e+01
2025-10-26 0.025959 0.051397 0.109878 0.279061 0.886882 3.864428 3.655474e+01
2025-11-02 0.022808 0.046398 0.102749 0.274880 0.947552 4.745276 6.240690e+01
2025-11-09 0.019626 0.040877 0.093370 0.261682 0.971955 5.563310 1.037393e+02
2025-11-16 0.017684 0.037882 0.089836 0.266627 1.088587 7.444979 2.349019e+02
2025-11-23 0.015984 0.035145 0.086332 0.270678 1.213348 9.996078 6.008991e+02
2025-11-30 0.014599 0.032930 0.083760 0.277556 1.371219 13.877758 1.986254e+03
2025-12-07 0.013381 0.030909 0.081258 0.284013 1.545535 19.454755 9.130082e+03
2025-12-14 0.012053 0.028355 0.076478 0.278789 1.640877 24.925820 4.710567e+04
2025-12-21 0.010258 0.024255 0.065878 0.242955 1.461799 23.453256 7.362003e+04
2025-12-28 0.009533 0.022996 0.064262 0.248551 1.639247 33.359155 2.888221e+06
2026-01-04 0.009025 0.022260 0.064217 0.262197 1.926016 52.976459 NaN
2026-01-11 0.008478 0.021319 0.063233 0.270905 2.196702 81.598259 NaN
2026-01-18 0.007991 0.020470 0.062381 0.280264 2.513407 130.360079 NaN